Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#253
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#167
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#270
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#245
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.5% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 26.0% 42.1% 17.7%
.500 or above in Conference 33.0% 44.3% 27.1%
Conference Champion 4.1% 6.6% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 22.7% 15.2% 26.5%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
First Round3.1% 4.9% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Neutral) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 48 - 611 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 182   Western Carolina L 76-80 34%    
  Nov 27, 2020 226   @ UNC Asheville L 74-79 34%    
  Nov 28, 2020 281   Troy W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 07, 2020 151   @ East Carolina L 70-79 20%    
  Dec 12, 2020 61   @ Mississippi L 62-80 5%    
  Dec 18, 2020 244   @ Norfolk St. L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 21, 2020 258   @ Campbell L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 23, 2020 346   Delaware St. W 88-72 92%    
  Jan 02, 2021 190   @ Drexel L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 03, 2021 190   @ Drexel L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 09, 2021 249   James Madison W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 10, 2021 249   James Madison W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 16, 2021 184   @ Towson L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 17, 2021 184   @ Towson L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 23, 2021 197   Delaware L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 24, 2021 197   Delaware L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 30, 2021 152   Hofstra L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 31, 2021 152   Hofstra L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 06, 2021 215   @ Elon L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 07, 2021 215   @ Elon L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 13, 2021 254   William & Mary W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 14, 2021 254   William & Mary W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 20, 2021 163   @ Northeastern L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 21, 2021 163   @ Northeastern L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 25, 2021 162   College of Charleston L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 27, 2021 162   @ College of Charleston L 65-73 24%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.5 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.7 2.1 3.8 4.6 3.4 1.2 0.1 15.9 10th
Total 0.7 2.1 4.3 6.8 9.0 10.6 11.7 11.5 10.4 9.7 7.4 6.0 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 97.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 89.4% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 66.1% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 35.2% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 12.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 51.3% 48.7% 2.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1%
16-2 0.3% 24.3% 22.0% 2.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.0%
15-3 1.0% 30.6% 30.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.9% 23.0% 23.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.5
13-5 2.6% 19.4% 19.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1
12-6 3.9% 11.6% 11.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.5
11-7 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.5
10-8 7.4% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.0
9-9 9.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.3
8-10 10.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.2
7-11 11.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 11.3
6-12 11.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.6
5-13 10.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.5
4-14 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
2-16 4.3% 4.3
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%